Some (naive?) Thoughts on War

Posted: November 6, 2008 in Uncategorized

artillery-fire

 

Russia vs. Georgia

Having grown up in Canada, it’s easy to forget that from time to time, organized groups of men come to the conclusion that some other organized group needs to be killed, invaved, bombed, or pillaged – for a whole host of reasons – ideological, religious, resources, retaliation, you name it.  But, because we’re so desensitized by the by infotainment that the news has become, we forget that around the world, there are a lot of really, really pissed off people.  Whereas the fortunate people of this world can just turn off the T.V., kill the radio or close the browser window, millions throughout the world don’t have these luxuries.  They might turn off their T.V.’s – and walk down the street to see the consequences first hand.    What I find particularly disconcerting is the fact that the global population is pushing planetary limits at a time when we are faced with dwindling energy & natural resources and deep-seeded religious hatreds.  I don’t think that wars are inevitable because, to a certain degree, we always have a choice.  But the challenges, tensions, and events which are taking place right now make me think that things are just getting started.  I can’t recall who said it, but I remember hearing a good quote about terrorism – terrorists only have to succeed once, whereas counter-terrorists have to be on their guard all the time.  Is it realistic to assume that in a world where tensions mount almost daily, there won’t be a major disruption in oil supplies at some point in the future?  Who knows?  I sure don’t.  

iraq

While geopolitical events will not be a major focus of this blog, they inevitably interact with the economic & energy landscapes which I will be exploring.  I may post a thing or two about what might look to be emerging geopolitical strategic thinking, but I’ll try to focus more on solutions which don’t require showering foreigners with explosives.  

It would probably be a good thing if we didn’t embark on a mutually destructive, zero-sum competition for the remaining resources, because, with the military capabilities in the world today, we could literally destroy the planet – and a lot faster than climate change ever could.  But how likely are we to avoid war?  War is written throughout the entire history of mankind, and yet we face probably the biggest crises we’ve ever faced.  I mean, Obama’s charismatic and all, but does that really matter much when the most valuable energy resource ever used by humankind is growing scarcer and scarcer every year?  The first law of thermodynamics states that energy is neither created nor destroyed.  Does that mean the first law of the geopolitics of energy is that energy is either procured peacefully or forcefully?  I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.  I’ll be keeping an eye out for any subtle hints that America might want some oil from overseas.  hmmm……

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– a.j.m. 

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